From early 2021 through early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, with substantial heterogeneity across local economies. Using administrative microdata, we ...

How does monetary policy impact banks’ lending behavior when interest rate changes revalue their securities? Detailed supervisory data show that banks with larger losses on securities during the ...

Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives ...

According to household surveys, inflation expectations tend to move together with expectations for gasoline price changes. The relationship is not symmetrical, though: Inflation expectations rise when ...

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of ...

The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond ...

Job-finding rates have declined over the past three years for people who are unemployed or are out of the labor force. Analysis shows that the decline in job finding for unemployed people has been ...

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research ...

Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of professional forecasters during the pandemic-era inflation surge and moved ...

We measure how workers use genAI in their jobs using a nationally representative survey that links genAI use to detailed tasks. GenAI currently assists a broad range of work, with at least one in five ...